Seaside,
CA Brands, marketers, agencies, rights holders and adtech platforms—(the demand
side), have all clamored for more premium in-stream video inventory (supply
side), or greater access to existing supply, though in 2016 the market is still
defined by inventory scarcity despite a proliferating device base.
In
todays fragmented device universe marketers are buying what they know and what
works: pre-roll formats on the desktop. There is, however, momentum behind
mobile/tablet/VOD inventory demand moving the budgetary needle.
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The
total market is forecast at $4.7 billion in 2016, and expected to increase at a
moderate single digit rate through 2018; in-stream spend continues to be
constrained by scarcity or measured demand (i.e. undersold inventory on
emerging platforms).
In
fact, we estimate in-stream video inventory across all platforms/devices
increased by 28.4% in 2015, while spend actually declined by -5.6% due to
higher levels of unsold/undersold inventory (i.e. mobile/tablet VOD) which led
to lower average blended CPMs as mobile inventories continued to flow into the
channel and private/public exchanges.
Insertion
frequencies, on average, including all sites, networks and channels, declined
in 2015 to 2.17, off 12% over 2014. Even so, after two years’ worth of both
single digit then negative ad spending growth we expect the market to snap back
in 2016 with inventory increasing by 6% and spend by 42.6% as CPMs equalize and
emerging platform inventory is better absorbed into budgets.
Currently
digital on-demand television (both brand extension and internet pure-play
publisher content) is being monetized against broadcast ad loads across all
platforms (i.e. ad insertions per number of video plays, or number of
advertising minutes per programming hour/half-hour), though the desktop remains
the most exploited screen/platform, according to AvailPlay Video Monitoring Services
by AccuStream Research.
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A
30-minute show (22 minutes of runtime as defined by a linear television clock)
has a range of 6 10 minutes of in-stream/online advertising, broken up into 3 4
pods, each pod with 17 ad units/avails of varying spot length.
A
60-minute show (43 minutes of runtime as defined by a linear television clock)
has approximately 17+ minutes of in-stream advertising, broken up into 59 pods,
each pod wit 17 ad units/avails of varying spot length.
Our research concludes:
VOD
platforms deliver the most consistent content/ad playback experience, but
on-demand services are the most immature and thus undersold at present.
The
desktop is the most exploited device type, and delivers a fairly consistent
experience with available audience/user information valuable to marketers.
Android
is a highly fragmented series of OS-powered platforms, which can result in
inconsistent playback and as well as inventory allocation.
iOS
benefits from some of the most sophisticated/supported apps
Non-desktop
playback inconsistency and lack of deterministic audience profiling are
contributing factors to lower CPMs and undersold inventory
Allocation
of in-stream inventory exhibits the characteristics of a sine curve, as
increases are followed by periods of absorption
Despite
the fact that in-stream inventory is relatively scarce, the emergence of new
points of access are typically undersold as brands access the value or ROI of
campaign buys based on formats/execution, consistency of playback, app design
and competitive pricing
Including
YouTube, in-stream video inventory is averaging a 2016 eCPM of $12.33 (eCPM is
calculated as spend divided by all allocated inventory, including
unsold/undersold or TrueView avails). VOD is a premium ad avail, but the market
is significantly undersold, and there are limited numbers of channels
publishing for VOD.
As
for YouTube, it’s one of the most highest spend generating video-centric
audience platforms online, both desktop and non-desktop. Inside partner
channels, there is a combination of strategies with regard to insertion
frequencies and TrueView/skippable inventory.
YouTube
exploits Auto, Music, Comedy, Beauty/Fashion, How-to, and Cooking/Health with
in-stream video inventory. The desktop, however, is by far the most exploited
device, including 2016 on the YouTube service.
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